Tuesday, January 29, 2008

McCain's win

We'll know next week how much tonight means for the Republicans, but if the pundits are to be believed (and I think they probably are this time) the story is becoming pretty clear for the Grand Old Party.

If they're right, Mr. 9/11 is embarrassingly done, after bizarrely ceding the first few primaries. If they're right, Hair Gel is done, after wasting a fortune. And if they're right, "100 years" McCain will be the anointed candidate of the right wing (though how far right remains to be seen).

Next comes the speculation from liberal-minded people such as myself: What does this mean for the Democrats? Now here is some real speculation, but I'm going to give it a shot.

(Quick aside: Matthews called McCain Lazarus, not Phoenix, because we're living in "this Christian time." He really said that.)

So what about the Dems? I think if this is all true, it's probably bad news for them. Set aside the head-to-head polls, which show that the only Republican who can beat one of the Dems right now is McCain. There's something else that is worth discussing as the Dems head for a long battle, and the Republicans get a breather.

In baseball, when a team wins in a 4-0 sweep, and waits for its opponent who is battling a long seven-game series, people question the impact. And the conventional wisdom always is that the team that is rested wins. I'm not convinced this works in baseball (players can get complacent and sometimes it's better to keep playing, as opposed to resting), but it probably works better in politics.

McCain will get to rest. And while that could be a shot at his old age ("100 years" serves as a way to mock his Iraq policy as well as his age) I mean it more in the sense that he gets to rally the base. He gets to build up his war chest. And he gets to start beating the drum that he has a chance to win. He can rally the hard-core Republicans who don't like him and convince them that he now becomes their only choice.

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