Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Clinton = Giuliani?

Last night Clinton gave her speech from El Paso, Texas. Obama gave his from Madison, Wisconsin. The Texas primary is not until March 4. Wisconsin's is February 19. Is Clinton giving up on Wisconsin, a state she trails by just 11 points in the most recent poll? Obama has won 8 straight states, but if Clinton lets him win Wisconsin and Hawaii, which is also held on February 19, he will have won 10 straight going into the March 4 primaries, which include the big prizes of Texas and Ohio.

The Times reported that Clinton is putting all her eggs in the Ohio, Texas baskets. This sounds a lot like Giuliani's strategy to me. He sat out the early primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina. He focused entirely on Florida, and came in third.

I'm tired of hearing about momentum, but it certainly plays a role in political races. New Hampshire taught us momentum is not everything, but you can't deny that it's something.

Clinton is planning on lying in the weeds and pouncing on Obama on March 4. But it may be too late by then. I would have thought that everyone would have learned from the Giuliani fiasco that you have to compete everywhere. You have to show that you are running. You can't wait for your moment. Remember that the day after the Florida Republican primary, Giuliani shut down his campaign.

Update: Apparently, I'm not the only one who has come to the above conclusion.

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