Even so, the real winner of the Democratic race in Pennsylvania is John McCain. The most significant number coming out of Tuesday night wasn't Clinton's 10 point margin of victory, but 43. That's the percentage of Clinton voters who say they would stay home or vote for McCain if Obama is the party's nominee in November. It is no longer just the Chicken Littles within the party who openly worry about an outcome that leaves large blocks of women or African-Americans frustrated and alienated.
The extended race is also clearly getting to Obama, who is noticeably fatigued on the stump and lacks the energy that drew in so many new voters earlier in the primary season. The largely positive media coverage he previously enjoyed has been replaced by a tenser relationship. The candidate now limits his availability to the political press corps, and recently snapped at a reporter who tried to ask a question while he was eating breakfast at a Pennsylvania diner.
At the same time, Tuesday night's results may require Clinton to alter her case against Obama in ways that could do real damage if he becomes the nominee. His ability to improve his standing among key constituencies while withstanding intense scrutiny makes it more difficult for her to argue that he could not win in November. (Clinton admitted as much in their 21st debate, answering "yes, yes, yes" when asked if Obama could beat McCain.) That means she'll have to instead argue that he should not be president. And that's music to Republican ears.
2 comments:
The percentage of people who are saying they'll stay home / vote for McCain if their candidate doesn't win the nomination is probably going to shrink considerably by November. Right now they're riled up because of the negativity of the primary, and are looking at the other Dem as an enemy. But once Obama (probably) starts debating McCain on policy and Clinton jumps behind Obama many of those people are going to shift their support. Ultimately they'll realize, based on their policy, that they're better off with Obama than McCain.
I really, really hope Obama gets the nomination, because I think he'd be the best president of the three. That said, I'm beginning to see the logic in Clinton's entreaties. The fact is, Obama built his lead in small states and in states that the Democrats can't win in November anyway. He capitalized on the large African American populations in southern states, on his superior campaign organization in caucus states, and Hillary's indifference to small states. If we're really being honest, Clinton's deficit owes much more to poor campaign strategy (exacerbated by her sense of entitlement), not on her being less popular or electable in the states she lost. The DNC's proportional representation system didn't help her. If this primary campaign had been run as the general election will be (winner-take-all in the electoral college), I believe she'd be ahead (but still not in the popular vote).
Before yesterday, Obama had a fair argument that he shouldn't be penalized for having run a better campaign. E.g., if it weren't a proportional-representation system, he'd have done things differently. But after spending the better part of 6 weeks devoted almost entirely to PA, and outspending Clinton by more than 2:1, he can't say he lost that key state for any reason other than that he's less popular with those key voters. (Although he did cut down her initial lead considerably). Plus, while Blacks are definitely going to vote Democratic either way, as will wealthy intellectual types, the older blue-collar whites could well stray if they really think Obama is too elist (or they really are racist). (On this point, I think Obama has an argument that the young people he's mobilized may stay home if he's not nominated, but it doesn't look they've been a big enough factor thus far).
All this is to say that if I were a super-delegate and I had no personal preference, I might be persuaded by Clinton's claim that only she can win over the states and voters that will actually be in play in November (as opposed to Alabama, GA, Blacks, intellectuals, etc. that Obama has won). On the other hand, holy shit. How would it look if the young Black man who's not only won a majority of delegates but also the popular vote has the nomination wrested away from him by the mostly-white party apparatchiks?
My greatest fear now is that Obama wins the nomination, then loses the election. If that happens, he's done for. Hillary can come back in 2012 (indeed, I bet she's half running for 2012 now anyway) and tell us we blew it the first time, but now we can get it right.
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