One of the more interesting stats came from an observation Jason Linkins made over at HuffingtonPost. Linkins reported that Clinton, far more frequently than Obama, was the last-minute choice for voters. This was true around the country. When undecideds went to the poll, they pulled the lever for Clinton.
The question is why. My hunch is that those last-minute deciders like the idea of Obama. They support his message and agree with his theme of bringing people together. But when they are forced with the decision of taking their vote away from a Clinton, someone they trust, someone they know from past experiences will improve the country, they aren't willing to gamble.
Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe this is more complicated. Maybe it says more about the people who haven't made up their minds. And maybe this is something Obama will neutralize as the race carries on by simply convincing people to vote for him before Election Day. What do you see in these numbers?
3 comments:
I always wonder about undecideds. I'm probably wrong, but my sense is that, by and large, people identified by pollsters as "undecided" are really people who haven't thought about it at all yet. If a pollster calls you and asks who you're going to vote for, and you haven't given it a thought, you're more likely to say "I haven't decided" than "I'm completely apathetic." These are people who are (by default) much more familiar with Clinton than Obama and thus more likely to pull her lever if they do go to the polls.
These "apathetic" people are less likely to go to the polls than those who favor Obama. So, it's basically a wash.
Nice blog. I agree with Anonymous #1 in that these are probably people that haven't thought about it much yet. And people that haven't thought much about it yet are probably more likely to be less educated, and maybe less wealthy, and probably not African America, i.e., a Hillary voter. So possibly correlation instead of causation. Same possibly for the latino thing, but pundits never consider this point. Can all political correspondents be forced to go to a statistics class?
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